SUMMARY
The GDP advance estimates for fiscal year 2025 show a mixed picture. The manufacturing sector will report the sharpest growth slowdown, with growth estimated to drop from 9.9% to 5.3%. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector is expected to grow at a rate of 3.8%, up from 1.4% in FY24.
By Poonam Behura January 8, 2025, 2:48:12 PM IST (Updated)
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The first advance estimate for FY25 has pegged India’s real GDP growth at 6.4%, slightly above the 6.3% forecast from the CNBC-TV18 poll. This estimate marks a significant slowdown compared to the 8.2% growth in FY24 and is marginally below the Reserve Bank of India’s projection of 6.6%.
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The GDP estimate for fiscal 2025 also means that the country would experience its slowest economic growth since the pandemic (when the growth rate declined by 5.8%).
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The nominal GDP in FY25 is projected to grow at 9.7%, slightly higher than 9.6% recorded in FY24. The revised growth figures suggest moderate economic expansion, high inflation, strained consumption, and external factors that may influence overall performance in the coming months.
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Manufacturing is projected to experience the sharpest decline, with growth estimates dropping from 9.9% to 5.3%. The manufacturing sector is a key part of India’s economic growth, and the government has plans to increase the sector’s contribution to the economy to around 25% by 2025.
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The first advance estimate for FY25 shows mixed growth across key sectors. Agriculture growth is seen at 3.8%, up from 1.4% in FY24. However, most other sectors are expected to report lower growth.
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In FY25, exports are expected to increase by 5.9%, representing a steady growth compared to a tepid 2.6% in FY24. Post-pandemic, exports had galloped by a whopping 29.3% in FY22.