This forecast encompasses the January-March period and signals continued resilience in India’s export sector.
In a detailed breakdown of the projections, India Exim Bank anticipates particularly strong performance in non-oil exports, which are expected to reach USD 109.3 billion, marking a substantial 11.34 percent growth.
The outlook appears equally promising for non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports, with forecasts indicating a value of USD 98.5 billion, translating to a 10.1 percent increase compared to the previous year.
The bank attributes these positive growth projections to several key factors, including robust agricultural production, renewed vigor in manufacturing activities, and improving demand conditions among India’s trading partners.
Looking at the full fiscal year FY2025, total merchandise exports are anticipated to reach USD 446.5 billion, showing a 2.2 percent improvement over FY2024.
Within this, non-oil exports are expected to account for USD 382 billion, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are projected to reach USD 350 billion.
However, the Exim Bank has noted potential challenges that could impact these projections. These include uncertainties in global trade policy, increasing geo-economic fragmentation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Despite these concerns, the bank expects the positive growth trajectory to extend into the first quarter of the next financial year.
These forecasts are part of the Exim Bank’s regular quarterly assessments, which are based on their Export Leading Index (ELI) model.
The bank releases growth forecasts for India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports during the first fortnight of May, August, November, and February for their respective quarters.
The next forecast, covering the first quarter of FY 2026 (April-June 2025), is scheduled for release in the first fortnight of May 2025.
(KNN Bureau)
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