Author: TEXTILE VALUE CHAIN
According to the latest CareEdge Economic Meter (CEM) and GDP preview for Q4 FY25, India’s economic activity showed renewed momentum, with CEM growing 3.0% YoY—up from 2.6% in Q3 FY25. Using machine learning to project growth, real GDP for Q4 FY25 is estimated at 6.8%, bringing FY25 annual GDP growth to 6.3%, marginally below the previous forecast of 6.4%.
Key Sector Insights:
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Agriculture performed strongly with robust Rabi sowing and a 23.4% YoY rise in tractor sales.
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Construction and infrastructure benefited from strong central capex in Q3 and higher steel and cement consumption.
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Services, especially trade, hotels, and transport, were boosted by festive demand from the Maha-Kumbh and live events.
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Manufacturing and mining posted moderate growth, while financial and real estate services saw deceleration.
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External trade faced pressure with weak merchandise exports, especially oil.
Although urban consumption showed mixed signals, rural demand was supported by better agricultural output and declining inflation. Government expenditure and external trade decelerated, while investment remained healthy due to prior capex disbursements.
Forward Outlook:
Recovery is expected to continue, aided by favorable monsoon expectations, falling inflation, and potential policy rate cuts. However, global uncertainties remain a key risk. CareEdge projects FY26 GDP growth at 6.2%.
Notable Projections for Q4 FY25:
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GDP Growth: 6.8%
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GVA Growth: 6.5%
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Consumption: 6.8%
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Investment: 6.9%
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Govt. Expenditure: 7.3%
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Top Performing Sectors: Construction (8.1%), Services (7.7%), Public Admin (8.5%)