Will Trump’s tariffs help? Local manufacturers doubt it.

But it hasn’t felt that way at Riverdale Mills, a Northbridge company which employs 120 workers who make steel wire mesh used in many applications, from household fences to lobster traps. Tariffs on steel imposed during Trump’s first term hammered the company’s profit margins.

The company didn’t lay off workers or raise prices, fearing a loss of market share. But it did slash investment in new equipment. A separate tariff program targeting imports from China helped by boosting Riverdale’s domestic sales, but the company took another beating when China responded with tariffs of its own.

“We worked through it, said Riverdale chief executive James Knott Jr. “But we weren’t as profitable as we’d like to be.”

Knott’s story echoes the views of other manufacturers and economists, who say that the first wave of Trump tariffs have brought little long-term benefit to domestic manufacturers — one of the key market sectors that tariffs are intended to help.

“There are pluses and minuses, but I would consider on a world basis, there are more minuses.” said John Stowe, chairman of Lutco, a Worcester maker of custom steel bearings and machined parts that employs about 120 workers.

A paper published in January by economists from several universities, including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, concluded that “import tariffs on Chinese and other foreign goods had neither a sizable nor significant effect on US employment.” The same paper concluded that when China boosted its tariffs in retaliation, the US lost jobs, especially in the agriculture sector.

And manufacturers doubt it’ll be any different if Trump goes through with his most recent proposals to set a 20 percent tariff on most imported products, and tariffs of 60 to 100 percent on merchandise from China.

“It’ll be disruptive as hell if they do that,” Stowe said.

It’s difficult to gauge the overall impact of tariffs in an interwoven global economy. Companies need raw materials and supplies from overseas, even if they make and sell products primarily in the US. And for those who depend on overseas sales, the threat of retaliatory tariffs looms.

There’s a lot at stake for Massachusetts companies, especially those doing business with China. That country was the state’s second-biggest export market in 2023, purchasing $3.3 billion in goods including industrial machinery, medical equipment and pharmaceuticals. The state’s economy has a lot to lose if China retaliates against a US tariff hike.

Tariffs are essentially a tax on imported goods, which lead to higher prices for foreign-made products, and make US goods relatively less expensive to domestic buyers. Tariffs are supposed to give businesses and consumers an incentive to “buy American.” But many manufacturers, including Lutco and Riverdale, use Chinese components in some of its products, making them subject to higher tariff costs.

Federal law gives the president considerable leeway in setting tariffs without input from Congress. So Trump could order tariffs of 60 percent or even higher, or he might settle for smaller increases.

While Trump’s posts this week provided an initial glimpse of his plans, there’s plenty of reason to believe they could change. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, a Trump supporter, said in a post on X that he sees the threat of tariffs on Mexico and Canada as a negotiating salvo that the president-elect could walk back if the neighboring countries meet his demands.

Trump, Ackman said, “is going to use tariffs as a weapon to achieve economic and political outcomes which are in the best interest of America, fulfilling his America first policy.”

Until the final picture becomes clear, manufacturers are struggling to prepare.

Paula Connelly, senior member in the Boston office of Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, a law firm specializing in trade matters, said she’s getting pleas for advice from many business in the state.

“The biggest issue … is the uncertainty.” said Connelly. “What we’re hearing from our clients is, what do we do?”

One option, Knott said, is to buy lots of Chinese-made products before Trump takes office. But that means burning through extra cash. Knott said some companies might have to pay with borrowed money, at a time of high interest rates.

Or companies can scramble to find alternative sources in countries with lower tariffs. But switching suppliers is itself complicated and costly. And in many cases, there are no good substitutes.

Some of Lutco’s ball bearing assemblies are Chinese-made, forcing the company to pass on at least some tariff costs to customers. Stowe said his company is looking for alternative sources, possibly based in India.

It would be impossible for manufacturers to pay 60 percent more for Chinese products without passing on at least some of the extra cost. They can’t just switch to a cheaper domestic supplier; often there’s no US firm that makes what they need. And Knott said it would take months or years for a US firm to begin making the needed products.

So companies like Riverdale and Lutco will keep buying some tariff-affected Chinese products, driving their prices higher and eating into their profits. And both companies expect China to retaliate with higher tariffs that’ll harm their Chinese sales.

“It would not be the end of the world,” said Lutco’s Stowe, who predicted that his company would eventually find their way through the tariff maze. But he added, “I don’t think it’s going to help American industry.”

When the first Trump administration imposed tariffs of up to 25 percent on $380 billion in Chinese goods, China retaliated with its own tariffs of a variety of US goods, including lobsters. The result was a dramatic slump in US lobster exports, which in turn led to a sharp decline in sales of Riverdale’s steel mesh for lobster traps.

This happened even as the Trump administration levied a 25 percent tariff on the imported steel that Riverdale uses in making wire mesh for lobster traps. “We got hit in two ways,” said Knott. “Our steel costs went up from $540 a ton to $940 a ton. And then the Chinese put tariffs on the lobsters. And then the lobstermen were unable to ship their lobsters to China because they were more expensive.” And of course, less demand for lobster meant less demand for the lobster traps made of Riverdale wire mesh.

Things got better after the ratification in 2020 of a US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement which allowed Riverdale to buy lower-cost tariff-free steel from Canadian mills. After that, the tariffs against China brought some benefit. “They helped to make the foreign imports more expensive to US buyers,” Knott said, increasing sales of his company’s mesh products. But Riverdale purchases chemicals and a small amount of steel from China, all of it subject to tariffs that eat into Riverdale’s profits.

Riverdale has managed to live with the original Trump tariffs. “I think everything from his first administration has settled down and it’s kind of reached its equilibrium,” said Knott. “Everybody is OK with where things are.”

But he’s skeptical about the benefits of a big boost in tariffs aimed at China,. “I don’t think it’s realistic, to tell the truth,” said Knott, who has learned from experience that China is able and willing to strike back.

Hiawatha Bray can be reached at hiawatha.bray@globe.com. Follow him @GlobeTechLab.